Stretching for 186 miles along the border of Utah and Arizona, Lake Powell serves as one of two major reservoirs that anchor the Colorado River. LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. "It would kill 50 to 60% of the businesses in town," said Franz. The latest data shows the reservoir at 3,523 feet above sea level. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. The water in Lake Powell is low because the amount of water in the Colorado River has been falling for decades. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." Lake Oroville, a key component of California's water supply, also benefited from the early-winter storms, as . You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. He and his wife have four cats, thousands of bees, and a yoga studio in the sleepy Northwest hills of Connecticut. The story has been updated to reflect this information. And most of those cutbacks are going to fall on the Central Arizona Project system. Given todays changing climate, led by continued warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, any knowledge we have of the past that historically would help us make predictions does not help us any more, Udall said. But a new study warns that the lake could virtually dry up in as few as six years if the region gets a repeat of the dry spell it experienced from 2000 to 2005. Seen from above in time lapse over the years, Lake Mead looks like a spindly puddle withering away in the Mojave Desert, as nearby Las Vegas, which gets almost all of its water from the lake and . There is also 29 federally-recognized tribes in the basin, of which 10 of those tribes hold a significant amount of water rights from the river. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. Having a reliable Lake Powell to back up Lake Mead is crucial especially during a period of uncertainty, Lower Basin users say. The lake isn't low enough yet to cause concerns about getting water out, but any hope of it refilling is years away, if ever, due to lowered rain and snow and increasing evaporation. "Climate change makes these extreme weather events both more frequent and more severe, '' Matthew Casale, Environment Campaigns Director at non-profit advocacy group PIRG, previously told Newsweek. Its impossible to even guess the odds of the Colorado Basin getting another six-year arid spell any time soon, said Udall and another longtime Colorado River researcher, Connie Woodhouse, a professor in the University of Arizonas School of Geography and Development. The river carried an average of 14.7 million acre feet from 1906 through 2015. They werent able to come up with an agreement. Lake Mead is projected to get down to 22 percent of its full capacity by year's end, while Lake Powell is expected to drop to 27 percent, according to estimations from the federal Bureau of . So it just throws the whole system into much greater uncertainty and a bit of chaos.. Glen Canyon Dam, Colorado River, Arizona. LUKE RUNYON: Well, Arizona is in the line for the steepest cuts from the Colorado River. The future of the reservoir is largely uncertain, but climate science and recent actions by the government are providing some hints as to what might happen in the near future. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. : Subscribe to the weekly Climate Point newsletter, READ MORE: Latest climate change news from USA TODAY. Its companion reservoir, Lake Mead, is at levels almost as low. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Get up-to-the-minute news sent straight to your device. Lake Powell is facing such a high degree of risk that federal water managers recommended taking emergency action to hold additional water in Lake Powell, an action all seven states in the Colorado River Basin . At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. The loss of generation from the lake would deprive the grid of about a quarter million households worth of power. The proposal, negotiated in secret for more than a year, would ship river water to Prescott and Williams on the north to Sierra Vista and Bens, Depending on what assumptions are made in its computer models, the risks of catastrophically low levels at Mead by 2026 have jumped three to s. Falling water levels at Lake Mead and Lake Powell have been concerning for several years. The Colorado River feeds both reservoirs, then supplies the lower-basin states of California, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico with water. You cant go into a drought like that today if its half full. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. Lake Powell is supposed to buffer water supply during times of drought [and] it is not performing that function now. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. The word unprecedented gets thrown around a lot in discussions about the Colorado River these days, and this is no exception. And I think its worth noting that things in the Colorado River basin can be highly variable year to year, and a few good snow years can change peoples opinions quite a bit. Its 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas, 50% to Phoenix, effectively 100% to Tucson and 25% to Los Angeles, said Udall. The Glen Canyon Dam, D'deest'in Htsaa, marks where the water level in Lake Powell on the Colorado River, reaches. JOHN DANKOSKY: So you know, with so many stories like this, we say, this is probably due to climate change. Thank you for helping us continue making science fun for everyone. As water levels fall in the reservoirs and river, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a tiered shortage system to reduce the allocated amount certain regions in the lower basin receive from the river to preserve water. The level has risen over the winter months due to rainfall and particularly cold weather to hit parts of the U.S. After seeing 30 inches of rain in one day in Louisiana, 20 inches in Houston, unprecedented drought in California over the last 5 years, not to mention the flow reductions in Colorado River, Udall said, I think we need to seriously consider water-related climatic events that have no historical precedent.. What states, what tribal nations, does this cut through? Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". In the abstract, people seem to think that hydropower can be compensated from other sources, [but] in practical terms, no one really seems to have that figured out, said Mankin, who co-wrote the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Drought Task Forces annual report in 2021. If the lakes levels drop below 3,490, Hawes added, the Bureau of Reclamation will have to run water through a series of river outlet tubes, the lowest delivery mechanism in the lake, for the first time since the 1980s, and bureau officials dont actually know if they can handle that much water, she said. Lake Powell is rapidly drying up as a result of the scorching megadrought in the Western U.S., and may completely disappear in just decades. Pause your chores until you have a full-load for the dishwasher. "You might not see the lush lawns of today and endless fields of alfalfa, but you will see thriving communities and agricultural regions. The lower basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and California. Stock image of Alstrom Point, Lake Powell. The U.S. Department of the Interior is considering a plan to keep extra water in Lake Powell. Invest in quality science journalism by making a donation to Science Friday. That deficit could easily put us below power pool within a year, just as a back of the envelope calculation, said Eric Balken, executive director of the Glen Canyon Institute. More. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. What would constitute that? Scientists say the current status of Lake Mead is a stark illustration of climate change and a megadrought that could be the worst in the U.S. West in 1,200 years . Weve seen evaporation increase from reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures. These cookies do not allow the tracking of navigation on other websites and the data collected is not combined or shared with third parties. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. He says such measures can help, for sure. California broke from six other Western states in proposal to cut Colorado River use as water levels reach historic lows. Science Friday transcripts are produced on a tight deadline by 3Play Media. The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. Monsoon rains didnt arrive. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. But the warming temperatures that were seeing make it considerably worse than it would have been. Lake Powell upstream of Lake Mead on the Colorado River is at its lowest level on record. So when Lake Mead declines, certain policy triggers are put in place. Water managers across the region are on the clock to come up with new rules for how to share Colorado River water before 2026, when the current guidelines expire. An official shortage declaration from the federal government could come as early as this year, as Lake Mead is currently projected to be below 1,075 feet in elevation at the end of 2021. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. The repercussions of a draining water supply are immense -- farms are drying up, a once-thriving marina now sits more than a mile from lake water and Arizona's Department of Water Resources is . Theyre already low, because the entire watershed has been experiencing above-average temperatures and below-average river flows since the year 2000. Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . Hawes noted that the lake has never reached that point before, creating substantial uncertainty about what would happen. Earlier this year, the Bureau of Reclamation released about 500,000 acre-feet from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Utah and Wyoming to Lake Powell, increasing its elevation about 16 feet. 3. The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". works with the radio team to create our weekly show, and is helping to build our State of Science Reporting Network. "I've been here since 2007 and obviously this is way lower than I've ever seen it.". You would have to go back to April of 1937, also twoyears into its initial filling, to find levels that low. This Statista chart shows the share of the continental United States' area under different levels of drought between 2018 and 2022. Google DoubleClick IDE cookies are used to store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads and according to the user profile. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. They are trying to negotiate a three-state deal that would reduce water deliveries even further, he said. Before that, he covered the worlds largest sockeye salmon fishery for KDLG in Dillingham, Alaska. The cookie is a session cookies and is deleted when all the browser windows are closed. Without wet hydrology to replenish the reservoirs, the basin finds itself in an all but certain shortage condition for the first time." . We'll assume you're okay with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. After more than 22 years of drought compounded by warmer temperatures with climate change, Lake Mead and Lake Powell have declined to their lowest levels since they were filled. Because of that, its expected that the Department of the Interior'sBureau of Reclamation, which oversees water management, will mandate onesometime next year. The shoreline it creates, in a red rock desert, is longer than the entire U.S. West Coast.. In those cases, what's revealed is the dry and dusty lake-bedwhich can be a problem in its own right. Give us an idea, if you would, just how low the supply is in the basins reservoirs right now. Newsweek reached out to the Central Arizona Project for comment. If the drought and excessive water use continues, Lake Mead could reach dead pool in the next two years and Lake Powell could soon follow. Thanks so much for joining us. "That has brought everything to a head much earlier than people thought it would.". You have permission to edit this article. Meanwhile, climate change is adding pressure to the entire river system, exacerbating existing supply and demand imbalances. And you know, thats way beyond any sort of voluntary conservation that Arizona has done up until this point. Used by Yahoo to provide ads, content or analytics. But its fundamental purpose under the federal law that created it is to serve as a water insurance policy for the Colorado River Basin. So the question is, how bad is it going to get? BACKGROUND: Western water crisis looms as California complicates critical water deal. All rights reserved. Asthe latest round of federal forecastsfor the rivers flow shows, its plausible, maybe even likely, that the situation could get much worse this year. Lake Oroville (of the enormous spillway failure fame) and Lake Shasta, two of California's largest reservoirs, are at critical levels. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. If levels dropped below 3,490 feet, there wouldnt be enough water flowing through Glen Canyon Dams turbines to generate power. It is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp. And its split into two watersheds. At 3,370 feet, the reservoir hits. Work on the dam that created Lake Powell began in 1956 and was finished in 1966. This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen. We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. This is a 300-mile canal that runs through the deserts of Arizona to deliver water to farmers and to the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. Okay. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. Dead pool is 3,370 feet. Thats about the amount of water that our soils are behind in terms of what they normally would have, Meyer said. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. But even some creosote is dying, unable to take the one-two punch of both the hottest and driest conditions on record last year in parts of Arizona. Climate change is driving more than two decades of drought across the region, and making it increasingly unlikely that Lake Powell will ever climb back to previous levels. What does the forecast look like? Colorado River tribes pose statewide leasing idea, Risks to Lake Mead, Colorado River intensifying greatly, federal officials say, Arizona basketball | Tommy Lloyd on the wild, fun nature of college hoops | Feb. 28, 2023, Millions at Risk of Slipping Into Poverty as COVID-Era SNAP Benefits Set to End, More than 300 words have been added to the English dictionary. And Lake Mead is currently at 37% capacity. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Every other state in the watershed had one of its top five driest years on record. The reality is that it's probably too little, too late.. YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. At full pool, Powell's water line lies 3,700 feet above sea level, and at 3,370 feet, it will reach deadpool levels. Brad Udall, a water researcher at Colorado State University whos not involved with the contingency plan, is less optimistic. And how can certain policy agreements, policy negotiations, be structured in order to allow tribal nations to come to the table and negotiate for future policies? Hes also been a long-time guest host on Science Friday. Water management requires planning for the future. House Republican eyeing legislation to prevent Santos from profiting off Murdoch: Hannity was privately disgusted with Trump after 2020 election, Trumps polling strength causes heartburn for Senate GOP, Top takeaways from student loan forgiveness arguments at the Supreme Court, Student loan forgiveness: Key statements from each justice. And thats Lake Powell in southern Utah and Lake Mead, which is on the Nevada-Arizona border near Las Vegas. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. They both use water from the Colorado River. YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. Weve seen declines in snowpack at the headwaters of the Colorado River and its tributaries. While levels are on a long downward trend, they fluctuate with the seasons. Riparian rights do not entitle a water use to divert water to storage in a reservoir for use in the dry season or to use water on . Last week, the lake reached a disturbing new. Experts say that the reservoir may dry up completely in a few decades. Joining me to shed a little bit more light on this is Luke Runyon. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. Air entering the system would also damage the generators. Just as water demand is going up, the supply is going down. This cookie is managed by Amazon Web Services and is used for load balancing. A large portion of the water in the Colorado River and Lake Powell comes from high-mountain snowmelt in Colorado and Wyoming. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. These cookies help provide anonymized information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc. Choose Tap Water Think ahead and cool a jug full in your refrigerator, so there's no need to buy bottled or leave the tap running. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. The water levels in Lake Powell are dramatically lower than they were in 2021, which in turn were lower than they were in 2020. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. We are really in unprecedented territory right now, and its not even close, Meyer said. Regardless of what they decide, theyre dealing with a steadily diminishing supply. Lake Powell (credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation) The power pool mark is 3,490 feet of elevation. 2002, 2018 and 2021 are the most intense dry periods on record for the basin. JOHN DANKOSKY: Luke Runyon is a reporter based at KUNC in Fort Collins, Colorado. Complicating matters are the ongoing talks on allocation between the seven states on the Colorado River, the source of the lakes waters. The studys computer models didnt factor in rising temperatures expected in this region due to climate change. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. Hes a reporter at KUNC, based in Fort Collins, Colorado. 30 Broad Street, Suite 801 Because of the record dry soils and lagging snowpack, theyrelikely headed to their lowest levelssince they were filled decades ago. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. However, experts have warned such measures cannot be a long-term solution. Keep reading with a digital access subscription. This segment is part of the The State Of Science spotlight. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. Lake Mead's water level on Wednesday was measured at 1,044.03 feet, its lowest elevation since the lake was filled in the 1930s. Guest host on Science Friday of them as a water level of feet! Reservoirs and streams at higher temperatures key component of California & # ;... A lot in discussions about the Colorado River program director at the Conservancy! During times of drought between 2018 and 2022 of them as a researcher. Users say what happens if lake powell dries up several hundred feet before they are trying to negotiate a deal... State in the basins reservoirs right now, and California temperatures and below-average River flows since the 2000! 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Theyre already low, because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer....